Scenarios for the future
This predicts nothing. You set assumptions for the wage and for the price, and the page runs the same arithmetic as the index. The two party leaders' pledges are preset options.
1. The wage
The pledges are quoted GROSS, fourteen payments. The index uses net after contributions, annual income divided by twelve. Today the gross is 910.00 € and our wage 919.72 €: they happen to look alike, which is exactly why the conversion is done explicitly.
The gross rises 4.5% a year, its own actual pace over the past decade.
| Year | Gross (×14) | Our wage | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 961.11 € | 206 | |
| 2028 | 1,004.36 € | 198 | |
| 2029 | 1,049.55 € | 191 | |
| 2030 | 1,096.78 € | 184 |
2. The price
None of the three rates is typed in. They are computed from the index's own data when the page loads.
The wrap ran at 8.5% a year over the decade and 13.2% over five years, while inflation did 2.3%. "Like inflation" is the optimistic end, not the neutral one: it has not happened in a decade.
3. What comes out by 2030
On these assumptions the raise evaporates: wage +19.3%, price +38.8%, and the index falls from 214 to 184 wraps.
Same year, with and without: in 2030 a freeze gives 154, this scenario gives 184. So it adds +30 wraps.
Break-even: with this wage the price can rise 4.5% a year before the raise disappears. The past decade ran at 8.5%.
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What this page is NOT
- It is not a forecast. It is arithmetic on assumptions you choose, and every assumption is on screen.
- The pledges do not date every euro. The annual average is weighted by months, and the weighting is written next to each button.
- Pledges stop at their final year. We do not add years of frozen wages that were not part of the pledge.
- Income tax is not deducted here, just as it is not in the series. The index works with net after contributions.
Price and wage coverage: price collection of September 2026, catering CPI to August 2026, minimum wage in force since 1 April 2026. Dataset version 2026.10.10-monthly-bulletin, last updated 2026-10-10.